Mental Performance Index
 1967-2007: Most Dominant Team?
Dr. John F. Murray's Super Bowl of Super Bowls

Dallas 27 (.487) Denver 10 (.436)

Super Bowl XII
Dallas vs. Denver 
Super Dome, New Orleans, LA    
January 15, 1978

MPI Track Record  MPI Summary
950 word release  400 word release

 

Dallas                                           
 
Offense   .455
Defense   .595
Special Teams   .326
Pressure Offense   .342
Pressure Defense   .696
Total Pressure   .492
Total MPI Score   .487
   
Denver      
 
Offense   .366
Defense   .488
Special Teams   .461
Pressure Offense   .283
Pressure Defense   .609
Total Pressure   .452
Total MPI Score   .436

 



Orange Crush Crushed by Doomsday Defense in French Quarter

The Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos celebrated stellar seasons and identical 12-2 records in 1977. The Broncos made it to the big show for the first time with their colorful new coach Red Miller, newly acquired quarterback Craig Morton, and a defense known as the “Orange Crush,” a name perfectly for a new orange drink in the Mile High city too. Dallas was the well established favorite at 5 ½ points, and had defeated the upstart Broncos 14-6 on the last week of the regular season. 

Our family took a rare trip out west in the winter of 1978, so I watched this one in Aspen, Colorado and saw the thrill of Bronco mania up close.  It was also this Florida high school student’s first taste of snow and skiing over on Fanny Hill at nearby Snowmass. 

Denver outgunned Pittsburgh in the playoffs 34-21 and barely escaped the Raiders 20-17 in the AFC Championship game. Dallas was much more impressive in the postseason, demolishing Chicago 37-7 and then the Vikings 23-6 in the NFC title game.

Bourbon Street brimmed with boisterous fans and local artists, visitors rich and poor, sober and otherwise, but everyone focused on the upcoming clash between the new orange kids on the block and the nation’s beloved. It was the first Super Bowl played in the mammoth New Orleans Superdome.

The Cowboys defensive superiority was quickly apparent when Randy Hughes intercepted Morton midway through the first quarter leading to an eventual Tony Dorsett touchdown sprint. Another interception by Bob Breunig and the ensuing field goal stretched the Dallas lead to 10-0. Dallas then added a long drive and three more to go up  13-0, but they failed to put the game away by missing two field goals and the teams retreated to the locker room with the Cowboys up 13-0.

Denver opened the scoring in the 2nd half to cut the edge to 13-3. After an exchange of punts, Staubach found Butch Johnson on an acrobatic 45 yard catch with his full body extended horizontally, and USA’s team stood 20-3 up before Denver stormed back on Rick Upchurch’s 67 yard kickoff return. Rob Lytle’s one yard plunge closed the gap to 20-10 and the third quarter closed.

The game was sealed for good when Doomsday sacked Craig Morton’s replacement Norris Weese and recovered the fumble. On the next play coach Tom Landry unleashed a trick play as Robert Newhouse's fullback option pass to Golden Richards resulted in a 29 yard touchdown. Dallas claimed their second Super Bowl title 27-10 and Denver would not see Rocky Mountain High again until John Elway's days in the 1990s.

An MPI analysis shows that this game was no fluke. Dallas prevailed on the total MPI score .487 to .436, but these scores also reveal that a game that was rather sloppy and poorly executed overall. Neither offense had much success, but Dallas’ defensive superiority (.595 to .366) stole this show hands down. Denver’s defense outperformed Dallas’ offense .488 to .455 and the Broncos special teams was also better (.461 to .326). Pressure play, however, belonged clearly to the Cowboys (.492 to .452 overall, better in pressure offense, and astounding on pressure defense). Taken together Dallas prevailed in 4 of 7 MPI categories and in key moments, but the Dallas Doomsday Defense was by far the most decisive factor in this contest.  

In rare kudos to a Super Bowl winning defense, the MVP award was earned by both Dallas defensive end Harvey Martin and defensive tackle Randy White. The Cowboys defense intercepted four passes and recovered three fumbles in the first half alone and Denver only managed 35 yards passing all day.

After this 12th Super Bowl, the NFL continued to explode in popularity and fans feuded over which team was best. With two wins each to their credit, Green Bay, Miami, Dallas and Pittsburgh faithful all made their claim as best. Since Dallas was the most recent two time winner, the Cowboys upheld their "America’s team" tag very well. 

Congrats Cowboys!

See a Behind the Scenes Tour of the Cowboys Locker Room

The MPI or Mental Performance Index is the first system of scoring  developed in sports which includes in the scoring key mental factors such as pressure management, reduction of mental errors and focused execution. It was developed by licensed clinical and sport performance psychologist Dr. John F. Murray in 2002 to show the extreme importance of mental factors in sports. It is much more accurate than the final score and other statistics in showing how one team performed relative to another team. It has almost perfectly estimated the relative performance of the teams before each of the past 5 Super Bowls. Dr. Murray's MPI forecast has also beaten the official Super Bowl spread 4 out of 5 times now. He has appeared on hundreds of radio and television shows, and the forecast has also appeared in hundreds of articles. Why all the focus, energy and interest in this topic? Because it so clearly demonstrates the importance of mental factors in sports. For more information about the MPI or Dr. Murray's services, please call 561-59-9898 or send an email to: johnfmurray@mindspring.com

Copyright © 2007 John F. Murray, Ph.D. All Rights Reserved

 

 

 

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