MentalPerformanceIndex.com for Football

Super Bowl III
NY Jets v. Baltimore
Miami Orange Bowl
January 12, 1969

MPI Track Record MPI Summary
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The third Super Bowl was again in Miami with the future of the adjective "super" on the line as the NFL Colts were an even greater favorite than the Packers of the previous two years! Still, there was a growing sense that this game meant something. The Orange Bowl sold out and the game was blacked out across South Florida. It was one of the busiest week of car rentals in Miami history as New York fans invaded South Florida for the first of many to come in the future Dolphins/Jets rivalry.

Jets quarterback Joe Namath had the audacity to guarantee a New York victory at the Miami Touchdown Club dinner on the Thursday before the game despite being 19 point underdogs. He was then photographed lounging with a smile and a suntan at hotel poolside where he repeatedly popped off his guarantee. Broadway Joe, he was called, and he was brimming with so much chutzpah that he made national headlines. Not many took him seriously and Don Shula’s mighty Colts, with their astounding defense, prepared to shut up "the mouth."

Before the game, the late and legendary announcer Curt Gowdy remarked that Namath’s comments had “put him on the spot” and gotten him into hot water with his coach Weeb Eubank. Could the University of Alabama star deliver on his promise? Talk about confidence and pressure management! As a footnote, Dr. Murray has an autographed photo with personal note of good luck from Joe Namath on the wall of his office in Palm Beach as Namath lived for a while in the Palm Beaches.

The Jets had just won the AFL Championship over Oakland 27-23 with some last second Namath heroics. In victory, the Jets avenged their earlier season loss to Oakland in the memorable “Heidi Game” when NBC television switched over to the movie Heidi to honor its contract in the final seconds, missing the exciting Raiders comeback while a nation of fans groaned! The Jets had gone 11-3 in 1968, but the mighty NFL Colts had only fallen once all year, to Cleveland, but they would avenge that defeat and nullify the Cleveland Browns 34-0 in the NFL Championship. Very few thought the Jets or Namath had much of a chance at all, and they were 19 point underdogs by kickoff.

In the first half, the Colts repeatedly squandered scoring opportunities. They missed a field goal in the first quarter, were intercepted on the Jets 6 yard line, missed a second field goal, were intercepted on the Jets 15 yard line, and were intercepted third time on a flea flicker when Baltimore quarterback Earl Morall failed to see a wide open and frantically waving John Mackey. The first half ended with the Jets up 7-0 behind the strong running of Matt Snell and Namath passing. Was a miracle in the making? Could the AFL earn respect years earlier than expected? By halftime even more of the nation raised their eyes still skeptical to watch as the story unfolded.

Don Shula’s halftime speech fell on deaf ears as the second half only spelled further disaster for the absent Colts. Tom Matte fumbled on the first play from scrimmage and the Jets drove for a field goal to take a 10-0 lead. The Jets defense held and Namath sharpened his spiral further as the Jets drove again to make it 13-0, and then 16-0 at the beginning of the 4^th quarter. Legendary Johnny Unitas eventually replaced Earl Morall at quarterback, probably way too late, but Johnny U was intercepted too, and the Jets strong running and careful passing ultimately clinched the improbable upset.

An MPI analysis reveals that Jets performed at an impressive .543 on the total score whereas the Jets performed at only .457 overall. While the Colts played a very sloppy game on offense, the Jets offensive executed superbly against the Colts supposedly amazing defense (.555 to .431). This proves the game was no fluke at all. The Jets destroyed the Colts on all sides of the ball and won in 7 of 7 MPI categories!

Especially impressive was the Jets performance in pressure situations (.580 to .393). Could the Colts have suffered from a comfort trap of overconfidence as huge favorites? The Jets earned this one with solid running, passing and blocking, and it was really no match. Namath looked exactly like a future Dan Marino with his quick release and rifle arm. To add salt to the Colts wound, even the Jets special teams was better (531 to .484).

Namath made the Hall of Fame on this shining display by backing up his promise. The Colts would reverse fate and take the title two years later under a new coach. Don Shula was traded to a nothing team in Miami, absorbed the humiliation, and worked his Dolphins team even harder with gassers in the hot sun until he transformed his pain into a perfect season and two Super Bowl championships.

This game earned the AFL the respect of a nation. It was led to the merger of the AFL and NFL into one league. The MPI shows that the Jets came to play ball in Super Bowl III, outperformed the Colts in all aspects, and won on the scoreboard too.

The MPI or Mental Performance Index is the first system of scoring developed in sports which includes in the scoring key mental factors such as pressure management, reduction of mental errors and focused execution. It was developed by licensed clinical and sport performance psychologist Dr. John F. Murray in 2002 to show the extreme importance of mental factors in sports. It is much more accurate than the final score and other statistics in showing how one team performed relative to another team. It has almost perfectly estimated the relative performance of the teams before each of the past 5 Super Bowls. Dr. Murray's MPI forecast has also beaten the official Super Bowl spread 4 out of 5 times now. He has appeared on hundreds of radio and television shows, and the forecast has also appeared in hundreds of articles. Why all the focus, energy and interest in this topic? Because it so clearly demonstrates the importance of mental factors in sports. For more information about the MPI or Dr. Murray's services, please call 561-596-9898 or send an email to: johnfmurray@mindspring.com